Bader’s Bits

How’s that for a five year summary of Apple’s future? You’ll be able to say you read it here first.

Hear me out. With the recent management changes at Apple the time is right to move OS X off of its old BSD core and onto Linux. In doing so, all Linux and open source application developers are now in essence writing for Apple’s platform. The distraction of KDE vs. Gnome goes away: OS X and Aqua become the desktop and UI for Linux.

Next, Apple takes Boot Camp to its logical conclusion: virtualizing the hardware and allowing any OS to run. That will make Apple’s hardware the most versatile in the industry. Amongst others, enterprises would embrace it because with one vendor, they’ll be able to run any desktop environment. Big market share growth. Sweet.

To frost that cake, Apple and Intel work together to exploit multiprocessing and multi-core CPUs, and really demonstrate that Vista is the end of the line. With Intel now struggling for direction, and fantasizing they can succeed in consumer marketing, a great solution would be for Apple to start setting Intel’s strategic direction and eventually subsume them. By then Dell will be all over AMD as they chase lower costs. Apple is the only company that can save Intel long term.

So the real frosting on the cake is combining Disney, Apple and Intel. It is what Sony had hoped to become. Whether this becomes one corporate entity or just Steve Jobs’ fiefdom, it would absolutely rule in cool. I just hope that as the empire grows that Jobs is more beneficient than Gates: open it all up a bit and make us consumers happier.
Let me know what you think. And remember, when all this comes to pass, you read it here first.

Yesterday, the House Energy and Commerce voted against the “Markey Amendment” which includes Net Neutraility language by a vote of 34-22.

The good news is a number of congressmen switched votes to the right side and that the issue is gaining public visibility, which means the congressmen will all need to defend their votes. More good news is that 250,000 signatures supporting the amendment were collected at Save The Internet in less than a week. Add your endorsement at their site.
The action now shifts to the Senate, where Senator Wyden’s proposal is being considered.
More news at dailywireless.org: Net Neutrality Down in House and Business Week: Tech Giants’ Internet Battle

It certainly was a great event for the community, and that’s what counts. I felt a sense of optimism that I haven’t experienced in many years about the growth in our “innovation economy”.

We’re very proud to be the Presenting Sponsor for the event this year, and hope that you found it worth your time as well. Leave some comments or email me to let me know what you thought and how we could improve things for next year.

For those of you that would like copies of the presentations, here they are:

• Open source economic development strategy.ppt This is the complete presentation that includes more specific programs and activities.
• Rethink Your Network (Updated pdf with graphics) For anyone with at least a T-1 to the Internet, or looking to put more infrastructure in a data center (like ours!), check out this presentation that describes metro area Ethernet services and how they enable better network deployments.
• Voice Over IP panel A brief overview of the voice over IP market, and why we think VoIP is a matter of “when” not “if” for just about every business.

Mike Rogoway digs in a layer deeper to answer more questions about the city’s wireless Internet service. Check out his article, (noteworthy because I’m quoted in it!).

Robert Iger, the new CEO of Disney, said that the lessons of the music industry screwing up convinced him to offer select ABC TV shows online for free. What a concept! The shows include embedded ads that can’t be skipped (we’ll see how long that lasts).

On the one hand, what’s he got to lose? Everyone is able to watch these shows for free already, so the risk of cannabalizing ABC’s revenues are not as obvious as they are in the music industry. On the other hand, if I were a network affliliate station, suddenly I’ve got another competitor, and so far there’s no room for local ads on the downloaded shows (the ads are different than the ones included in broadcast).

Regardless, those are his problems. Suddenly, though, the obvious has happened: Hollywood’s precious content is now being distributed for free on the Internet. To Robert’s credit he’s doing what his customers are asking for. And other content is bound to follow. How long will it be until we no longer need cable service to get our TV fix? Things are starting to get interesting…

At long last, the decision has been made. MetroFi has been chosen to build out Portland’s wireless network. Check out Portland based dailywireless.org for in-depth coverage.

We are totally jazzed about this new network. The RFP required that the network be “open access”, meaning that service providers like us will be able to deliver services on it. While there’s still lots of design work and contracts to sort out, we’re looking forward to being there early on. We expect to be delivering WiFi based services before year end, and WiMax class services early next year.

The SAO is sponsoring a wireless applications panel at Innotech. Come and learn more about Unwire Portland and some of the applications that the network will enable. See you there.

I promise that I won’t blog all the machinations of the various Congressional committees and subcommittees regarding Net Neutrality. There’s no guarantee that any proposal will actually make out of committee for a vote this session. But the battle lines are being drawn and the skirmishes are fast and furious.

Here’s a good article on the state of affairs from Consumer Affairs. The bottom line is the telcos are gaining momentum in burying the issue with “promises” everything will be OK. Frankly, I don’t trust them on this issue. We’ve got to get Net Neutrality legislated. Even that is no assurance, but it’s better than nothing.

Tis the season for local industry events. Innotech is shaping up as the premier innovation and high tech event in Portland.

EasyStreet is pulling out all the stops in support of the conference. I’ll be on so many panels that my handlers are worried about overexposure. Our booth theme is: EasyStreet 2.0–Bigger, better, faster, and more. Make sure you stop by to find out why. Need another reason? We’ve got the Starbucks coffee wagon in our booth first thing in the morning. Getcha free latte’s here! And we won’t bug you while you’re trying to wake up.

Sean Lowery, Innotech’s director, tells us registation is running 2x over where the conference was a year ago. All your buds are going be there. You should too. And you can get in for free. Click here and enter the magic discount code: ESP305

See you there!

Highlighting the tectonic shifts underway in the U.S. telecomm industry, the Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) announced that U.S. Wireless Subscriber Level Reaches 194.5 Million in 2005 and are expected to Grow to 270 Million by 2009. Geez, according to census.gov, there’s only 298.476,130 folks in the U.S. at the moment. Sounds like market saturation is approaching, no?

On the flip side, the number of access lines in use continues its five year decline, as the cool kids eschew them, and the cablecos and VoIP provide other alternatives. Market research firm eMarketer reports another TIA statistic not included in their press release, that landlines fell to 172 million lines. They predict consumer VoIP usage to increase to over 30 million users by 2010.

These trends will wreak havoc on the telcos business models. There is still real competition in the wireless space, while the landline business is more of an oligopoly with the cablecos. That’s why they’re fighting so hard for regulatory advantage. But the writing’s on the wall. That’s why net neutrality and a healthy relatively deregulated VoIP market are so crucial to moving the nation’s telecommunications services forward.